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Cloud Craft Research Note №01
18 triggers, 17 held. Three are still open.
“
When Phantom fires, the economy has not priced it in yet.
Anatomy of 21 triggers · 19 months · BTC perpetual · December 2024 - June 2026
01
0/ 18
Hit rate (7 days)
94% - Wilson CI: 76 – 99
02
1 :0
Risk / Reward (DIP-ZONE median)
0.6% DD → 29.3% peak
03
0/ 12
ATH-ZONE 5%+ drop
Binomial p < 0.001
LIVE
+35.85%
June 25-29 cluster (3 triggers, day 109.1)
DIP-ZONE target: +39.6%
ARarity
Phantom Is Rare
It fired 21 times in 19 months. Call it a little over once a
month. Phantom is not an indicator that keeps flashing all day; it can
stay silent for days, even months. Then a moment comes, and it fires.
When is the next one? We do not know. The average wait is 29 days,
but we have also seen 139 days of silence, a new record, between February 6 and
late June 2026. Those who see it late do not get a second chance.
LIVE CHART
BTCUSDT perpetual · 19 months · golden vertical lines = Phantom triggers
↘The golden lines at the far right: June 25-29, 2026, a 3-trigger DIP cluster
·Cases
A Look at Three Cases - Public Cases
ACTIVE
June 25-29, 2026 - 3-Trigger DIP Cluster
First trigger: 25 Jun 2026 · $59,958
Three Phantom firings landed within five days, on June 25, 27, and 29,
each in the DIP-ZONE, roughly −52% below the ATH. This time the founder did not
announce it on Twitter: Phantom is now shown to Elite members first, and the public evidence runs
through the archive CSV and Binance prices instead of a real-time tweet.
Days elapsed: 109.1
Current return: +35.85%
Max DD: -3.6%
Time to +5%: 7.98 days
DIP target progress: 90.5%
90-day window closes September 23, 2026. 120-day milestone: October 23, 2026. Target: +46.7% (DIP median).
RESOLVED
February 6, 2026 - Historical Case
Entry: $60,255.65 · DIP-ZONE · Now resolved
The most extreme DIP-ZONE trigger of the earlier series, held through its full window.
Maximum drawdown just −0.42%, +11.85% at 30 days, +35.14%
at 90 days. This one is already counted among the 17/18 settled wins above.
Entry: $60,255.65
Max DD (within 90d): −0.42%
30d: +11.85%
90d: +35.14%
ARCHIVE
April 7, 2025 - Historical Case
Entry: $75,012 · −31.8% from ATH · DIP-ZONE · Isolated trigger
Phantom fired. +29% in 30 days, +44.2% in 90 days.
Maximum drawdown just 0.6%. This is one of the purest DIP-ZONE examples:
price pulled up with almost no drop.
Entry: $75,012
Max DD: 0.6%
30d: +29.0%
90d: +44.2%
Character: Mid cluster (a trigger 28 days earlier)
A day later, on April 9, a second DIP firing occurred ($75,275): the April cluster is the most fruitful DIP series in this report.
BLive Trigger
LIVE
The June 25-29, 2026 Cluster Is Still Open
Three of the most extreme DIP-ZONE triggers in the sample, all firing within five days.
For the thesis to be confirmed, price needs to deliver +46.7% (the DIP median)
within 120 days of the first firing. Where things stand today:
-
Days left
120-day milestone
-
Hours
Oct 23, 2026
+35.85%
Current return
Entry $59,958 (first trigger)
109.1
Days elapsed
Since June 25
Progress toward the DIP-ZONE 90-day target90.5%
+39.6% median
The 90-day median of the past 5 DIP-ZONE triggers is +39.6%. The June 25-29 cluster is now on day 70, at 78% of the target. The 90-day window closes September 23; the real test is day 120, October 23: median +46.7%.
Max DD-3.6%median 0.6%
Time to +5%8 daysmedian 2 days
Max upside (peak)+35.9%Aug 28, 2026
This time we did not post about it in public. Phantom is now shown to Elite members first,
before any public announcement. But nothing here is hidden: the archive CSV and Binance's own
price history let anyone verify the June 25-29 firings and the numbers above. If price hits
+46.7% by October 23, the thesis strengthens. If it does not, we will have
falsified the report, and we will update the page. There is nothing to hide.
These numbers were not fabricated after the fact. For the first 18 triggers, every time Phantom
fired, the founder posted it on Twitter that day: the dates are on X.com, the prices on Binance,
and the view counts are all still in place. Starting with the June 25-29, 2026 cluster, that
changed: Phantom is now shown to Elite members first, and the public record runs through the
archive CSV and Binance prices instead. 7 tweets and a 2 minute
44 second broadcast, there before this report was written.
None of it was adjusted after the fact. The tweet timestamps are on X.com, the prices on Binance,
the CSV archive on our servers. Put all three side by side if you like, and verify it yourself.
·Method
Phantom Lights: What Is It?
Phantom Lights is an event-based trigger that fires on an
asymmetric pressure signature forming under specific conditions in market
microstructure. Direction does not emerge on its own; the price's distance from the ATH
determines the directional call:
DIP-ZONE>20% below ATHlong bias
ATH-ZONEwithin 10% of ATHshort bias
MID-ZONEbetween 10-20%trend confirmation
“
We do not disclose the mechanism. What Renaissance Medallion does: they show what it measures and in which regime it works, without explaining how it is calculated. We do the same.
CBoth Sides
$1,000 per trigger - 18 trades, 94% hit rate
Phantom is two-way: LONG in the DIP-ZONE, SHORT in the ATH-ZONE.
If you put fresh $1,000 into every trigger and held for 90 days, what would the last 15 months have produced?
17/18 triggers profitable.
Zone
Trigger count
Direction
Median 90d
Win rate
Net profit
DIP-ZONE
5
LONG
+34.6% avg
5 / 5
+$1,732
ATH-ZONE
12
SHORT
+9.8% avg
11 / 12
+$1,172
MID-ZONE
1
LONG
+20.5%
1 / 1
+$205
TOTAL
18 trades
-
-
17 / 18 (94%)
+$3,109
Strongest DIP (LONG)
07 Apr 2025 · $75,012
+44.2%
90d return · $1,000 → $1,442
Strongest ATH (SHORT)
05 Oct 2025 · $125,050
+28.1%
90d SHORT · $1,000 → $1,281
The only loss
09 Jun 2025 · $105,676
−4.2%
90d ATH SHORT · $1,000 → $958
Phantom Both Sides (18 trades, $18K)
+$3,109
+17.3% ROI · 94% hit rate
vs
Passive BTC buy-and-hold (Dec 2024 - May 2026)
−15%
$95K Dec 2024 → $81K today
ASYMMETRIC EDGE+32%Phantom was net positive while passive buy-and-hold booked a loss
Each trade was calculated with separate capital, and I removed the overlaps. You can open ATH SHORTs
with perpetual futures and DIP LONGs with spot or futures. Past profit is not a guarantee.
Still, 17 out of 18 trades holding is not a random thing.
There are 3 more triggers not yet in this table: the June 25-29, 2026 DIP cluster has not
completed its 90-day hold window, so it has not been entered into the results column yet.
All three are currently running positive.
Existing Pro members upgrade to Elite in one click. With annual billing it works out to $167 per month
(20% discount). If you subscribe while an active Phantom trigger is running, you can follow the
remaining days live.
EPaywall
200+ traders use the Cloud Craft Terminal: Phantom Lights real-time access is for Elite members only.
The Table Is Locked
Knowing whether you are at the ATH or the dip changes everything: this is where Elite separates.
Full 21-trigger detailed table (date + entry + return)
No credit card required. Phantom Lights stays locked, but try the core of the terminal for free.
FFAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
If I subscribe while an active Phantom trigger is open, can I recover the performance I missed?
No: the first ~70 days of the June 25-29 DIP cluster have already passed (+30.9%). But the 120-day milestone (October 23) is still ahead. As an Elite member you see the post-milestone report update and the next Phantom firings in real time. There is no compensation for missed performance; today is for catching what comes next.
How many times a month does Phantom Lights fire?
21 triggers in 19 months, an average of about 1.1 firings per month. It is not an indicator that constantly sounds an alarm. Sometimes 139 days of silence (the new record, between February 6 and late June 2026), sometimes 3 firings in 5 days (the June 2026 DIP cluster). It cannot be predicted, which is why real-time alerts matter.
What is the refund policy? Is there an annual commitment?
Monthly plan, cancel anytime. The annual plan is 20% off but is not an annual commitment; you can cancel anytime and use the remaining month. Refunds only in the case of a technical fault (e.g. if the Phantom Lights system is down for more than 7 days, a prorated refund).
Is this report also available as a PDF?
The full Research Paper will be published in Phase 2 (August 2026 target): 35-45 pages, with an academic co-author, multi-asset replication + threshold sensitivity matrix. An expanded version of the current Preliminary Note. Elite members receive the PDF as soon as it is published.
Does Phantom Lights only fire on BTC?
The current sample is on BTC perpetual. However, on DIP-ZONE triggers, altcoins (ETH, SOL, LINK, DOGE, XRP) react strongly (ETH median +106% over 180 days). Multi-asset Phantom replication is one of the main goals of Phase 2: the firing counts for ETH and SOL in their own microstructures will be tested.
Does it work on mobile?
Yes. The terminal is mobile-responsive. The Elite alert system uses push notifications + email (Telegram bot integration coming soon). When Phantom Lights fires, an alert reaches you within about 30 seconds on average.
If you are still waiting...
You read this from start to finish. 17/18 hit rate, 1:49 R/R,
+31% live cluster. If you are not convinced, that is fine; Phantom will fire again,
and the page will still be here.
But remember: past performance is not a future signal. This sentence cuts both ways;
the past shining is not guaranteed, but missing the future cannot be undone either.
